An extended dry spell brought about by the El Niño phenomenon will have an adverse impact on food production, water supply, public health, and - to a lesser extent - power generation. The overall effect on the economy will be negative as the agricultural sector faces severe challenges on several fronts : pressure on agricultural commodities like rice, corn, and coconut production; fisheries; and livestock.

Background Information
The current El Niño started in April 1997, with rising ocean temperatures in South America and scarcity of rainfall in Indonesia and Australia. By August, weather experts noted that the average water surface temperature had climbed to 27.7 degrees Celsius, 3.1 degrees higher than the annual average. The combined effect of higher ocean surface temperatures coupled with redirected winds across the Pacific results in hurricanes and unusually wet weather in eastern Pacific countries and droughts in the western Pacific. Ironically named after the Baby Jesus, El Niño peaks during the Christmas season. It originally struck Peru and Ecuador, thus the Spanish term "El Niño", and occurs every two to seven years. It normally sets in from December to February and lasts until June of the succeeding year.

The El Niño of 1982-83 was a major one, registering more than US$13 billion worth of damage to property and agricultural crops worldwide and claiming 2,000 lives. Drought and fires spread throughout Australia, Southern Africa, Central America, Indonesia, South America, India, and the Philippines. Floods and violent storms with hurricanes ravaged the United States, Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia and Cuba.

The Philippine Experience
In the Philippines, the worst episodes of El Niño occured in 1982-1983, in terms of affected areas, and in 1990-1992, in terms of damages.In 1997, El Niño was first detected along eastern Luzon, parts of the Visayas and Mindanao. The delayed rainy season, weak monsoon activity, and fewer tropical cyclones entering the Philippines were indications that El Niño had arrived. For 1997, only 13 tropical depressions had entered the country, about half the annual average.

El Niño's impact on the Philippines will come in many forms: soil compression, salt-water intrusion, high risk of forest-and-bush fires, and possible food and water supply shortages. The most visible effects will be on crop production. Palay and corn harvests will decline due to lack of irrigation, leading to imports of grains. Even coconut oil production may decline as haze generated by forest fires from neighboring countries, retards the ripening process, cutting down production of coconut products.

The Department of Agriculture has estimated that the 1998 rice harvest will reach only 11.5 million metric tons, about 400,000 metric tons short of original projections, as this prime crop is heavily dependent on water supply. To utilize croplands in the period of the impending drought, the Department of Agriculture has started to distribute bags of sweet corn and vegetable seeds to farming communities as alternative crops. Furthermore, a 90-day rice variety has been introduced to farmers to shorten the waiting days to harvest. The department has also worked on contingency plans to reduce losses in all other agricultural crop production and to change planting seasons to avoid damages from floods and typhoons from July 1998 to October 1998.

To induce rain, the department is planning on cloud-seeding over places used for livestock, crop and fishery production. To implement the cloud-seeding process, the government has set aside a minimum amount of P48 million. The government has also released an estimated P500 million for Small Water Impounding Projects (SWIPs). Both these budgets will come out of a P1.3-billion fund the government has allocated to cope with El Niño.

Rationing Water Supply
According to the National Irrigation Administration (NIA), levels in water reservoirs have dropped to alarming points. However, a comprehensive contingency plan for El Niño has not been drawn up since no decision on how much water goes to irrigation, electricity, and to households has been reached yet. It is a fine balancing act. For instance, NIA was forced to temporarily stop Angat Dam's water supply to farmlands in selected areas in Bulacan and Pampanga last November after it was determined that continuous irrigation would lead to immediate drying up of Angat Dam, thereby leaving Metro Manila households high and dry with little or no water.The Angat dam is not the only water reservoir in danger of low water level. Pantabangan and Binga dams are also approaching critical points. In the early part of November, water levels of the different reservoirs stood at the following levels :

Metro Manila residents have been advised to observe strict water conservation. Angat Dam's water level is expected to drop further to 180 meters in December 1997 according to Maynilad Water Services. At water levels of 160 to 170 meters, the situation is technically a drought. To date, the lowest watermark Angat has reached was at 172 meters during the 1982-1983 El Niño period.

Both Manila Water Company, Inc. and Maynilad Water Services are gearing to plug all the leaks, prevent or stop illegal water connections, and conduct intensive information campaigns on water conservation. On the other hand, experts attending the Asia Pacific El Niño-Water Summit / Clean Up World Conference recently held in Manila suggest that drinking water be imported from countries which are not experiencing El Niño. Government officials have until June 1998 to come up with a good source of water since Angat Dam is expected to reach critical levels during this period.

Power: No Brownouts
With adequate sources of electricity, other than at hydro plants, there is only a small possibility of brownouts on Luzon even during the El Niño days. The country uses a fairly broad mix of energy sources with enough power-generating capacity from coal, oil, and geothermal sources to pick up where hydro may lack. But while this is especially true for Luzon and Visayas, it is not so for Mindanao, which is quite dependent on hydroelectricity.National Power Corporation (Napocor) expects the peak of the El Niño phenomenon to occur between the months of November 1997 and April 1998. In its mid-November 1997 report, Napocor revealed that water levels in power-generating sources in the Luzon and Mindanao areas may not be sufficient to produce electricity for the two power grids, especially in Mindanao which is 70 per cent dependent on hydroelectric power. With El Niño, only 63 per cent will be ably supplied by hydro-based plants. The cost of power generation should increase as additional expenses are incurred to run non-hydro power plants.

Contingency Plans
Aside from individual agency plans like that of the Department of Agriculture and National Power Corporation, an inter-agency Presidential Task Force on Water Resources Development and Management (PTFWRDM), has been formed to ensure overall water availability in areas affected by El Niño, particularly in urban areas. This newly-formed body is headed by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, with the support of other government agencies. The new body, with its "Water for Life"/Tipid-Tubig campaign, recommends 13 steps in mitigating drought-related events, for which the government has allocated P85 million. Part of its program includes:

• Immediate construction of 10,000 small farm reservoirs and shallow tube wells, specifically in critical areas such as Bulacan due to the critical condition of Angat Dam. To date, the number of shallow tubewells installed has reached 8,000 units distributed among provinces.

• Construction of 1,000 diversion dams and storage facilities in the uplands. Rehab-irrigation dams are now operating, supplying 300,000 hectares of agricultural lands.

• Enhanced fire-fighting skills for fire-prone areas such as Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Western and Northern Mindanao, and Cordillera Autonomous regions

• Increased monitoring and continuous information dissemination regarding the effects of El Niño

• Development of drought- and high-temperature-adaptive species of crops, fish, and other plants

• Efficient use of water

Counterparts of the Multi-Sectoral Task Force, and Task Force El Niño, have been formed in the country's different regions.